Presentation Highlights

Any attempt to leap forward and predict what the new world of agriculture may look like must be based on the fundamental forces that are constantly shaping the current system.

Let’s use the analogy of a beach. Day in and day out waves (waves of change) come crashing in on the beach constantly reshaping the shoreline. From the beach itself it is not evident where the wave actually came from and until the wave actually reaches the shore it is even difficult to determine how big the wave is and how much it will change the landscape. What we can be sure of, is that the waves will relentlessly keep crashing on the beach. Some days will be relatively calm and some days will be tropical storms. The power of the waves and constant application of their force make even rock and coral vulnerable to change.

In the agricultural world we have a tendency to believe that we operate in a special industry and that our problems and opportunities are unique. That kind of thinking is not only incorrect and short sighted, it is dangerous and naive. Most of the greatest forces that will shape agriculture are evident in every other industry and many other industries can give us clues of the possibilities for our future.

In the beach analogy, What are the significant waves of change that are moving toward the beach as we speak?

Biotechnology – The potential to create specific plant output characteristics suitable for specific market needs at an unprecedented speed is a wave that will radically reshape many beaches.

Information Technology – The information technology world brings rapid information distribution to an unrestricted audience. There can be relatively few secrets when we are wired and virtually unlimited access.

Customer Demands – The consumer and those who do business on their behalf are becoming increasingly more discriminating, demanding and rich enough to pay what they need to for exactly what they want. The system demands mass customization and every other industry is attempting to rise to the challenge. Is agriculture?

Regulation and Global Standardization and Proof of Performance – Customer confidence issues continue to drive higher production standards and quality control. The buyer needs to know through some dependable (Internationally recognized) system, that what they are buying meets all of their expectations. National and industry standards will not cut it. Instead, expect International standard systems, global accreditation and complete accountability and trackability to each individual in the system with credible independent auditing.

With each of these waves crashing on the beaches, which beaches are most vulnerable to change and are most likely to be reshaped?

• Many approaches based on individual strengths
• Many specific output trait crops with unique agronomic requirements, yet limited public agronomic resources (maybe none)

• More electronic monitoring as much for proof of performance and documentation as for better in field characteristics.
• Greater proof of ROI and/or more innovative equipment sharing agreements

• More peer to peer business relationships
• Clear separation of product and service with COSTCO type options
• Multiple supplier support systems (dealer, crop scout, precision data management specialist, applicator and others) must collectively focus on farm’s strategic plan

• Either the size the operation or the specialization will drive the need for a much more sophisticated information management system.
• Capturing and processing management information that is critical and detailed but not overwhelming

• Specialty production will demand ISO type quality control systems, standards and independent auditing.
• This not about you knowing you did a good job, it is about the customer having verifiable proof!

• The more complex the management system required the more demanding managers will be to receive an appropriate return on investment.
• Farm managers may not need to own land or equipment to be rewarded well.
• Multiple models of share ownership, vertical integration and long term production contracts will create extreme diversity in working models.

• Non commodity marketing will be based on production organizations marketing their strengths in quality control, risk management and other characteristics.
• Farm CEO’s will compete (potentially with their neighbors) for the right to specialty production with more lucrative rewards if they can offer something their competitor can not.

• Size and complexity of farms will require farm CEO’s to hire and develop talent based on the individual strategy of the farm.

• Astute farm CEO’s will attempt to exceed all regulation and accreditation standard to effectively brand themselves as the most worthy of the highest price

Management skills development?

• Future farm management will require proportionally more CEO skills relative to agronomy skills.
• Farm CEO’s should consider spending less time reading farm magazines and paper and more time reading Harvard business review, Inc., Fast Company and Wired.

As landscape continues to change in each of the above areas, Farm CEO’s will need to decide which areas they will focus on. Which beach offers the greatest potential for a marvelous adventure with thrilling rewards and which beach is just too dangerous for anyone but the strongest swimmers?

Life is too short no to focus our life’s energy on pursuits that provide the greatest personal, financial, and spiritual rewards. If our time on the beach is not an adventure worthy of our life’s energy, we are on the wrong beach. Many farm CEO’s may need to make difficult decisions about their ability and willingness to lead their organization in the emerging new world of agriculture.

For those inspired by the challenge of the new marketplace dynamics, It will be critical to begin making decisions today to shape your capabilities in the future. Before the biggest waves come crashing in on the beach, have you prepared yourself for the adventure or is there a high risk of drowning?

Farm CEO’s have the opportunity to begin building:

• The management skills
• The quality control expertise
• The required business and marketing relationships
• The staff and facilities
• The strategic plan to embrace change and exploit all of the possibilities.

With the certainty that there will be another wave crashing on the beach, our agricultural industry will continue to change and our opportunities and hazards will expose themselves in the changing landscape.