NO-TILLING IN THE '9OS

NO-TILLING IN THE '9OS. . .

Here are my 99 predictions as to what will be coming in zero-tillage farming during the new decade. Plus plenty of up-to-the-minute ideas on how you can personally profit from these very important changes.

-Frank Lessiter, Editor/Publisher of No-Till Farmer

FUTURE GROWTH

The no-till acreage will continue to steadily grow during the '90s in all areas with all crops.
Government program compliance, ramifications of the Lisa program and changing attitudes among the general public will bring the anticipated increase in no-till acres
Back in 1975, USDA economists (using projections based on the annual No-Till Farmer "Tillage Practices Survey" data) predicted that by the year 2000 we would be no-tilling 45% of the nation's corps. Some 15 years later, these projections have proven far to optimistic.
Instead, look for 39 million acres of land to be no-tilled by 1999.This will make up 13.7% of our total farmed acreage. (By comparison, we no-tilled 7.1 million acres in 1980 and 15 million acres in 1990).
It took more than a generation before farmers readily accepted hybrid seed corn and commercial fertilizer. It will take even longer with no-till.
After seeing the many benefits of' no-tilling, farmers will no longer hold back and wait for better crop prices, lower machinery costs, etc. They will switch to no-till faster than ever before.
Illinois will reach the 3 1/2 million-acre mark for no- tilled crops by the middle of this decade.
0ne of' the biggest increases in no-till will come with cotton. Researchers have worked the bugs out of' the system for no-tilling cotton and many more farmers are gearing up to use it on a sizable portion of their own farms.
While no-till growth has been rather steady in some areas over the past 5 years, look for it to really take off, particularly on highly erodible land.
If you are wondering why no-till has not caught on in a bigger way, the lack of consistently effective weed control at it reasonable cost is the reason.
Future no-till growth will not be revolutionary, but evolutionary. No-till will grow gradually as it has for the past 10 to 15 years, unless we get tremendous pressure from government or environmental groups to change more rapidly.

ECONOMICS

No-till will become even more important as a means of improving a farmer's profitability in the years ahead.
No-till can help a farmer trim $23 to $35 per acre off his machinery, labor, pesticide and fertilizer costs with corn. These savings will be critical as the cost/price squeeze hits farmers in a big way during the '90s.
Look for even larger per acre savings to develop with no-till in this decade.
Farmers can already grow corn for a net variable cost, including soil losses, of only $1.23 per bu. For corn compared with $1.71 per bu. for conventional tillage. No-till will widen its profit margin even farther in the years ahead.
No-till can help a farmer turn out a bushel of soybeans for $2.92 per bu. of net variable cost compared to $4.28 for conventionally tilled beans. Again, no-till will do even better in the future.
By looking at labor returns on a per hour basis, no-till can already earn as much as an extra $49.02 per hour. Research studies have shown a return of $91.64 per hour for conventional tillage. $135.78 per hour for conservation minimum tillage and a $140.66 per hour return for no-tilling corn.
Having already seen the many economic benefits of no-tillage, lenders will get on the bandwagon in promoting this zero tillage practice. Look for lenders to ask tougher questions and turn down more loans for moldboard plows and big horsepower tractors by the middle of this decade.

WEATHER

Long-range weather forecasters are predicting several serious droughts during the first half of this decade. Look for more favorable weather during the last half of the 90s.
No-till can help you conserve valuable moisture. But you must know how to properly manage your no-tilled land to earn the best possible returns.

TILLAGE

Don't be surprised to see a banning of fall plowing and possibly all plowing in certain areas of the country due to growing erosion and chemical runoff concerns.
This may be the best time to sell your moldboard plow, because it may never again be worth as much money as right now.
Rotational tillage programs may serve as a practical alternative for some farmers facing serious weed, compaction and soil stirring problems on some of their ground.
Landlords will demand that farmers who rent their land farm it with conservation tillage practices. This won't mean running disk over the ground six times!

THE GOVERNMENT

Government programs during the '90s will be the "club" or incentive to convert a significant portion of our cropland to no-till.
No-till will be one of the few methods available for farming highly erodible land.
If you think the government has been tough with tillage options under the federal compliance programs; you haven't seen anything yet. Expect even tougher rules for farming highly erodible hill ground before this decade comes to a close.
If Congress ever decides to enforce the original intent of many US Department of Agriculture rules. We will see the most drastic tillage changes we've ever seen in the history of our country. No-till would be the big winner!

DOUBLE-CROPPING

Look for double-cropping opportunities to move further north as we come up with new varieties and new cropping ideas to make this profitable idea work. With new technology, there will be practically no limit to how far north double-cropping will move during the later years of this decade. We will have profitable double- cropping of small grains and other crops as far north as the North Dakota/Canada border.
With I billion more people to feed throughout the world by 1999, we must adopt more intensive cropping practices such as no-till double-cropping on more land. By the year 2050, the world's population will double, pointing up the need for development of new cropping systems in the years ahead.
Thanks to use of new reduced tillage practices, the Russians have moved their corn-growing season with heavy prairie soils 200 miles farther north in the Ukraine area. It was done because someone sitting in Moscow simply said, "Do It Now!"
With growing export markets for our grains, double-cropping of wheat, barley, soybeans, grain sorghum and other crops will grow in both popularity and profitability.
Thanks to coming developments in no-till double-cropping, we will be using no-till to successfully triple- crop by the end of the '90s.

CROP RESIDUES

Farmers and researchers alike will refine what we now know about the value of crop residues in a successful no-till program.
We will do a better job of distributing heavy concentrations of residue to improve the warming effects of the sun in early spring and to overcome problems due to depressed soil temperature and seedling emergence.
Machinery manufacturer engineers will come up with better ideas to insure residue feeds properly through no- till planters and drills to provide maximum crop performance.
More farmers will see the value of increasing organic matter in their soils. No-till will help you double the organic matter found in many soils by the end of this decade.
With a number of exciting new herbicides coming on the market, farmers will not be afraid to no-till directly into johnsongrass, one of America's most serious weed problems. Some farmers will even use it as a winter cover crop for successfully no-till.
We will learn more about the allelpathic effects of residue and the toxic impact it can have on weeds. We will use small amounts of toxins or growth regulators given off by weed residues or cover crop residues to retard the growth of weed seedlings. Some researchers are already showing the allelpathic impact of using rye as a cover crop in controlling weeds in no-tilled fields.

COVER CROPS

These crops definitely have a place with successful no-till cropping programs. Increased management requirements and cropping practices will be worked out.
We will see more intensive use of cover crops than ever before--at least since the days when our fathers and grandfathers turned under "green manure" crops with the plow.
We'll find the "missing links" for no-tilling forages which will lead to increased acres of no-tilled forages. pastures and cover crops.

ROTATIONS

More no-tillers in the years ahead will recognize the value of rotating crops in controlling weeds and solving other problems. Rotations will include cash crops and more cover crops.
Scientists in South America say average soybean yields ranging upwards of 45 bu. per acre are due to combining crop rotations with no-till. We'll learn the same lessons!

NO-TILL PLANTERS

There will be increased research emphasis on no-till equipment by farm machinery engineers.
Planters will be designed to handle only one type of farming practice such as no-till. Less emphasis will be placed on designing a piece of equipment that will work successfully under all cropping programs. As a result, we will see major planter developments aimed specifically at the no-till market.
Look for engineers to focus their design efforts on new ways of making no-till planters properly penetrate the soil and to effectively handle high crop residue situations.
The no-till planter of the future will feature major improvements in penetrating the soil, will plant at an even depth regardless of soil and residue problems, will have the ability to properly cover the seed furrow, provide adequate seed-to-soil contact and accurately place seed for the most even stands possible.
We will see new types of slot opening devices to clean residues out of the row area and new coulter designs coming in the next few years.
Dealers will be more eager, knowledgeable and aggressive in selling no-till systems than ever before. They will be less interested in selling "iron."
Shortline equipment manufacturers will become more deeply involved in no-tillage than ever before. They will make quick decisions on launching new products for no-till.

NO-TILL DRILLS

Within the next 3 to 5 years, we will see dramatic changes in the drills used for no-tillage. We have about reached the limit on refinements of current mechanical developments with drills.
0ne of the most troublesome parts of no-till, proper seed and fertilizer placement will be solved with new drill designs. Manufacturers will develop true no-till drills instead of an all-purpose rig to fit all seeding situations.
We need to stop thinking about tilled seedbeds when developing equipment and management ideas-for no-till.
Thanks to improved water-holding capacity. no-till seedbeds have more potential to germinate seeds and have seedlings emerge than a tilled soil, especially when soil is dry.
We need to research different seed depths and seeding methods for no-till since residue covered soils often have different depth and growth patterns for soil moisture. temperature and seed zone densities.
We will see innovative designs in drill openers in the future, including further development of the recently introduced cross-slot opener which has proven so successful with no-till in Australia and New Zealand. This development will open the door for new, much needed no-till drill developments.

SPRAYERS

There will be a significant move toward applying only ounces instead of pounds or gallons of pesticides per acre.
Groundwater contamination concerns will become more important - both among farmers and the general public.
While spraying techniques have remained about the same for no-till as with conventional tillage and conservation tillage, this will quickly change. No-till spraying will become more critical and require top-notch management.
Tramlines and permanent wheel tracks will be used in no-till fields. This will help farmers do a more accurate job of spraying and help reduce compaction problems.
No-tillers will realize a sprayer is just as important a piece of equipment as their planter or drill. Farmers will do a better job of selecting a sprayer to fit their specific no-till acreage, crops and conditions than ever before.

CULTIVATION

With growing concerns about chemical usage and costs, some no-tillers will utilize high residue cultivators to keep weeds under control.
Researchers will evaluate benefits of stirring up the soil with a cultivator in corn and wide-row soybeans to see what its impact is on no-till yields.
Some no-tillers will side-dress nitrogen as they cultivate their corn crop.

FERTILIZATION

Computer-operated instant soil testing units will provide immediate results for changing fertilizer recommendations and application rates right from the cab while running through no-till fields. These rigs will let you sharply reduce the amount of nitrate contamination of both surface and groundwater due to over application of nitrogen. The new concept will also enable you to trim fertilizer bills without suffering costly yield losses.
We will see more in-row banding of fertilizer and lime with no-till in the coming year.
Increased research will determine the reaction between herbicide usage, proper nutrient needs and ph levels in the soil.
Soil testing will be done more frequently as the organic matter of no-tilled soils continues to increase each year.
New application equipment will be developed for applying nitrogen to no-till fields.

VARIETIES, HYBRIDS

Plant breeders will be challenged to come up with new varieties and hybrids developed specifically for no-till.
While there is no real evidence to date to show certain hybrids do better under no-till conditions, this doesn't mean new varieties and hybrids can't be developed to perform better under zero tillage conditions.
0ne clear need is to develop corn hybrids which will germinate and grow well under no-till conditions which is 5 to 10 degrees F. lower temperatures than current hybrids. Since it is possible to plant earlier with no-till and soil temperatures under no-till are lower, such hybrids would be of great value. Expect these new hybrids by the mid '90s.
With improved planting and drilling equipment and seeds developed specifically for no-till; you will no longer need to increase plant populations 5% to 15%. We will no longer see the serious stand losses, which have been common in some no-till fields due to improper equipment usage.
Farmers will learn how to turn out higher yields with no-till corn which can sustain higher populations during dry periods. This will be due to better infiltration and less surface evaporation resulting from the protective mulch left on the soil surface.

ROW WIDTHS

In Brazil, over 90% of full- season soybeans are already no-tilled. They use 7 to 15 in. row widths because of the consistent yield increase it produces. Let's learn from our South American neighbors and go to narrower no-till rows in a big, big way - and quickly!
U.S. farmers have been slow to switch to narrower rows due to equipment and herbicide limitations. With coming developments, that's no longer a logical excuse and growing close-row beans and other crops such as corn has never been easier.
Earlier shading with narrow rows will make it much easier to control weeds in most of your no-tilled crops.

MANAGEMENT

Farmers who move to no-till will become fully committed to the system. After 4 to 6 years of no-till, they will realize their soils can start coming back to their original condition with improved structure, tilth and many other benefits.
More farmers will recognize that even a light disking after a half dozen years of no-tilling can do serious damage to the no-till soil structure and cost them yields and profits.
The argument that there are more weed problems with no-till than with conventional tillage or minimum tillage will be proven wrong. While there is a change in annual weeds, more farmers will recognize weed numbers do not necessarily increase with no-till.
Higher levels of consistently good management will be needed with no-till. This is especially true when it comes to establishing a good crop stand with pest control, particularly weeds.
After seeing what has been done with no-till in South America and some parts of Europe, I'm fully convinced no-till is more developed in some of these areas than here in the U.S. Our farmers can learn about new ways to improve profitability by learning more about no-till programs used all around the world.
To overcome springtime problems with cool, wet soils, we will -see ridges used in combination with no-till. With no-till cultivation gaining popularity, ridges could be a natural future development.
Consolidation of smaller farms into larger operations will increase the trend toward more no-tillage.
Thanks to no-till and several new farming ideas, we will see higher levels of farm production during the '90's.
Farmers in the western Corn Belt will more readily accept no-tillage than farmers located in the eastern Corn Belt.
We will see increased research emphasis and development of management programs dealing with the role earthworms play in no-till's success.
If the government were to take 10% of the money they are putting into low input sustainable agriculture programs and put it into earthworm research, no-till would really benefit. In fact, the whole country would be better off.
New plant growth regulators, plant stimulants and bio-technological developments will boost no-till yields in the future.

WEED CONTROL

Unless government regulations dictate otherwise, we will continue to depend on soil-applied herbicides as the main means of controlling no-till weeds.
Stronger, longer-season residual grass herbicides will be developed for no-till crops.
If we lose our triazine herbicides, look for several years of "trouble" until new compounds come out.
Further cost reductions will be necessary in chemical weed control. While we currently have all the herbicides needed for effective annual weed control in no-tilled soybeans, the cost of using most of them can be almost prohibitive.
It will become even tougher to get new agricultural chemicals approved for use by U.S. farmers.
Additional herbicides for controlling perennial weeds in no-tilled crops will be coming shortly.
Farmers will undergo more in-depth training before being licensed to apply pesticides. By the end of this decade, you will have to be licensed if you want to use any chemicals on your farm.
Biotechnology will revolutionize the development of herbicides, for no-tilled crops. Look for major breakthroughs!
Chemical companies doing traditional research will question the investment of millions and millions of dollars when new developments in biotechnology could wipe out any prospective products practically overnight. As a result, firms may slow down their introduction of new compounds until biotechnology finally gets a firm toehold.

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Gramoxone will still be around by the end of the decade as a valuable contact herbicide. Already a safe product, further safety developments will be made before 1999.
More research will be completed to overcome concerns that herbicide interception by mulch requires an increase in rates of applied no-till herbicides to get good weed control. Environmental groups will watch this research carefully!
We will see more split applications of no-till herbicides. New research will show this is a safer means of applying herbicides and an effective way to provide longer season weed control.
By the end of this century, it is likely that we will see some new herbicide chemistry and new alternatives for current contact herbicides.
New surfactants, adjuvant and other additives will extend the effectiveness of many herbicides in the years ahead.

EARLY PRE-PLANT

Rapid adoption of early pre-plant herbicide application for no-till will provide more consistent, more effective weed control.
More research will be done on whether you need to increase herbicide rates when going the early pre-plant route.
We will see more split application of herbicides than ever before with pre-plant programs.

ALL-POST PROGRAMS

The jury is still out on use of total post herbicide programs with a number of no-tilled crops. Nobody really knows whether this is going to be the answer to our no-till chemical concerns or not.
New developments with post-emergence compounds will lead to better control of no-till perennial weeds such as common milkweed, hemp dogbane, johnsongrass, yellow nutsedge, fall panicum and crabgrass.
More work will have to be done on total post-emergence herbicide programs before they are readily accepted by no-till farmers. Up until now, many farmers who have tried an all-post program in no-till soybeans have generally abandoned it after a year or two if they have three to four grasses or six to eight broadleaf species with winter annuals and perennials.
Until Accent and Beacon become readily accepted by farmers, there will be no logical all-post option for no-tilled corn.
Even so, new chemicals along with more research will eventually lead some farmers to consider an all-post approach to weed control in several no-tilled crops.

INSECTS, DISEASES

More intensive ways to control insects and diseases in no-till crops will be developed. New seed treatment programs and spray programs will be widely accepted.
Farmers will do a better job of monitoring fields for insect, disease and weed problems before deciding on a course of action. Scouting programs will sharply cut your pesticide purchases and application costs.
Integrated crop management programs will be developed which emphasizes the importance of properly scouting your no-till fields.

THE ENVIRONMENT

The environment will become increasingly important in shaping farm policy. Focus of the Farm Bills of the '90's will be in protecting water resources and developing soil conservation practices which center around protection measures.
In the 1970s, scientists studied the quality of' the nation's surface water and millions of consumers changed their laundry detergent brands. In the '80's, researchers looked at the impact of runoff fertilizer and pesticides on groundwater quality. In the '90s, the total water system will be closely examined as investigators determine the effect agriculture and rural and urban waste disposal have on our drinking water quality.
Increasing concerns about environmental quality, mainly surface water and groundwater has raised serious questions about no-till's heavy dependence on herbicides.
Conflicting research on the movement of fertilizers and pesticides through undisturbed root channels and wormholes will be favorably worked out for no-till. As a result, no- till concerns about groundwater quality will become a topic of the past. Expect to see scientists placing water quality monitoring systems in a few of your no-till fields as they attempt to determine whether this tillage practice adversely affects water quality.
Restrictive legislation is likely if the public perceives the risk from agricultural chemicals under no-tillage or other tillage is too great.
We will see more crop and livestock production systems developed that will help preserve our natural resources.
The idea of low input sustainable agriculture will give way to integrated crop production management programs.
There will be increased development of regional water systems in rural areas for livestock as well as country people.
Environmentalists will play a bigger role in writing farm legislation than ever before. Farmers, ag groups and agricultural suppliers must do more to show consumers the many benefits of no-tillage from the standpoints of food cost, food safety, erosion. groundwater safety and chemical safety. If anyone is going to be responsible for major agricultural changes in the '90s, it will be the environmentalists.
Because of growing environmental concerns, major changes in both no-till cultural and management programs are likely later in this decade.

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